Wednesday, May 4, 2011

A man with two watches

There’s an old adage that goes something like, “A man with one watch knows what time it is; a man with two watches is never sure.”

Well the same applies to weather forecasts.

CaptureOf three separate forecasts for tomorrow (Weather Network, Environment Canada, and the newspaper) we have two calling for rain with a high of either 7 or 9 degrees. The third is predicting 9 degrees and sunny.

This has been the pattern all winter as various sources would regularly have quite significantly different forecasts. And sometimes none of them were right, with the only reliable forecast being the look-out-the-window one.

It amazes me still that we pay people for this.

1 comment:

Gary said...

Being a meteoroligist is the only occupation I know of that pays thousands of dollars in salary to be wrong. So they invented code words to get them off the hook like "scattered" showers. This means if it doesn't rain where you are, it probably rained somewhere else. "Sunny with intermittent clouds" is another. "Possibility of Precipitaion...50%" What the heck kind of new math do they use to come up with these percentages? With all the technology avaialable today...radar, dopplar radar, satellite imagery, gps and whatever else, you'd think they could do better. And none of them throw chalk in the air like Percy Saltzman did years ago either.